Thursday, January 19, 2012

POLITICO poll: Newt closing in S.C.

It's Romney versus Gingrich in South Carolina, and it's close, according to a POLITICO survey taken by the Tarrance Group:

A POLITICO Poll of likely voters shows the former Massachusetts governor atop the GOP field with 37 percent and the former House speaker at 30 percent.

Texas Congressman Ron Paul trails with 11 percent, followed by former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum at 10 percent and Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who barely registers at four percent. Just eight percent remain undecided.

“You really have a two-man race, with Paul and Santorum battling back and forth for number three and four and Perry out of the mix,” said Ed Goeas, a Republican pollster whose firm, the Tarrance Group, conducted the survey on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Gingrich has momentum: When voters are asked to volunteer the name of the candidate they plan to vote for without being prompted by a list of names to choose from, Romney’s lead over Gingrich slips to 31-29. Among those who say they will “definitely” support their candidate of choice, the two are essentially tied, with Romney at 23 percent and Gingrich at 22 percent.

One reason the former House speaker is pressing Romney: his consistently strong debate performances. Among those who claim they’ve watched all or almost all of the 16 debates so far, 49 percent support Gingrich compared to 23 percent who back Romney. Gingrich ranks fourth, at 11 percent, among Republicans who did not catch any of the debates.

Whether tonight's debate, or Marianne Gingrich's "Nightline" interview, dominates the closing hours of the South Carolina race could have a good bit of influence over the final outcome.

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