RIYADH, Saudi Arabia (Reuters) — Hundreds of Saudi Shiites in the eastern part of the kingdom protested peacefully on Friday in support of Shiites in Bahrain, as King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia offered $93 billion more in benefits and strengthened his security and religious police forces.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States will deploy additional amphibious ships to the Mediterranean, the military said on Friday, as part of the Obama administration's plans for responding to ongoing violence in Libya.
The USS Bataan Amphibious Ready Group will deploy on March 23 "ahead of its original schedule in order to relieve units from the USS Kearsarge (Amphibious Ready Group) currently positioned in the Mediterranean Sea," it said in a statement.
The arriving group includes the amphibious assault ship USS Bataan, based in Virginia, and other ships.
Trace radioactivity from Japan likely over the Western U.S. today
Posted by: JeffMasters, 2:11 PM GMT on March 18, 2011 Traces of radioactive substances emitted by Japan's damaged Fukushima nuclear power plant will likely arrive over the Western U.S. today, carried by the prevailing west to east winds that have blown over the Pacific Ocean during the past week. Rainfall is expected over California this weekend, and it is likely that the rain will wash radioactive particles out of the air to the surface in quantities that will be detectable at several locations. I want to strongly emphasize that the radioactivity from Japan arriving over the U.S. over the next few days poses absolutely no threat to human health, and is present in only miniscule quantities. The radioactive plumes from Japan have had seven days to dilute over a 5000+ mile journey, and have been subject to deposition to the ocean due to gravity and rainfall along the way. Natural radiation is present in our environment every day, and the extra radiation from the Fukushima nuclear plant will cause much less than a 1% increase this background radiation. Radioactive particles from the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 were detected in North America ten days after that event, and caused no harmful effects. The radiation from Japan over U.S. during the next week should be at levels even lower than the Chernobyl fallout.
Figure 1. Backward trajectories for the air arriving at the surface (red line) and 300 meters altitude (blue line) in San Francisco, California on Saturday, March 19, at 11am PDT. According to the latest run of the GFS model, the air arriving in San Franciso tomorrow will have originated near the surface in northern Japan last Saturday, when radioactive emissions from the Fukushima nuclear plant began. The radioactive particles arriving in California will be in trace quantities, and will have no harmful effects on human health. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.Radioactive plumes emitted from Japan's troubled Fukushima nuclear power plant continue to move offshore to the east over the Pacific Ocean today, thanks to predominantly west winds blowing at 5 - 15 mph. These winds are being driven by the clockwise flow of air around a surface high pressure system centered just southeast of Tokyo. As this high pressure system moves northeastwards, parallel to the Japanese coast, today through Saturday, winds will gradually shift to the southwest, keeping the radiation from the Fukushima plant blowing out to sea. As the winds shift to southwesterly, the sinking air over Japan will be replaced by rising air, and radioactive emissions will begin being lifted high in the atmosphere. Since there is less friction aloft, and the high speed winds of jet stream increase as the air moves higher in the atmosphere, this radiation will undergo long-range transport. Latest trajectory runs using NOAA's HYSPLIT model (Figures 2 - 4) show that radioactivity emitted today could wind up over Alaska after five days, and radioactive particles emitted on Saturday could make it to California by late next week. I've made trajectory plots for the next three days assuming two possible release altitudes--a surface-based release near 10 meters, which should be the predominant altitude in the current situation, and a higher release altitude of 300 meters, which might occur if there is an explosion and major fire. However, the 5-day trek to Hawaii and California is 4000 - 5000 miles, and a tremendous amount of dispersion and dilution of the radioactive plume will occur. Given the current levels of radiation being emitted, any radioactivity reaching Hawaii or the U.S. may be difficult to detect, and will not be a threat to human health. Keep in mind also that the most dangerous radionuclide to human health in the radioactive plume--Iodine-131--has a half life of eight days, so will be reduced by at least 30% after 5 days of travel time.
Of much greater concern is the possibility of dangerous level of radiation over Japan. The next period of onshore winds that will blow radioactivity inland over Japan may occur beginning on Saturday night (U.S. time), continuing through Sunday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The latest HYSPLIT trajectories show winds on Sunday may carry radiation from the disaster site southwards over Tokyo. A low pressure system is expected to bring considerable rain to Japan on Sunday, and this rain is likely to remove most of the radioactivity from the air where rain and radioactivity are both present. The winds associated with this low are difficult to predict at this time, since the winds will be light and variable.
Figure 2. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Friday, March 18, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system. The plume emitted near the surface (red line) stays trapped near the surface for 4 days then lifted to 4 km, but the plume emitted at 300 meters is lifted to 5 km altitude after 2 1/2 days by the rising air associated with the approaching low pressure system. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Figure 3. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Saturday, March 19, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system and lifted to 4 - 5 km altitude. The plumes are predicted to move over California and Mexico at high altitude. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Figure 4. One-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 100 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Sunday, March 20, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught northerly winds, and the two lower altitude plumes move over Tokyo by 6 UTC on Monday, March 21. This is a low confidence forecast, as winds are expected to be light and somewhat variable on Sunday over Japan. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.Resources
Seven-day weather forecast for Sendai near the Fukushima nuclear plantThe Austrian Weather Service is running trajectory models for Japan.
Current radar loops from the Japan Meteorological Agency
Jeff Masters
Updated: 2:14 PM GMT on March 18, 2011 Permalink | A A A Favorable winds over Japan continue; all-time record heat in Mumbai, India
Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:23 PM GMT on March 17, 2011 Favorable winds blowing at 10 - 20 mph out of the northwest continue over Tokyo, Japan today, and these winds will take radiation particles emitted by the stricken Fukushima nuclear plant immediately out to sea, without lingering over Japan. The northwesterly winds are blowing in response to the clockwise flow of air around a high pressure system approaching Japan from the southwest. Since high pressure systems are regions of sinking air, the radiation will stay clo...
Permalink | A A A Favorable winds over Japan carrying radioactivity out to sea
Posted by: JeffMasters, 2:16 PM GMT on March 16, 2011 If there is going to be a major nuclear disaster with massive release of radioactivity into the atmosphere from Japan's stricken Fukushima nuclear plant, today would be the best day meteorologically for this to occur. The low pressure system that brought rain and several inches of snow to Japan yesterday has moved northeastwards out to sea, and high pressure is building in. The clockwise flow of air around the high pressure system approaching Japan from the southwes...
Updated: 2:30 PM GMT on March 16, 2011 Permalink | A A A Rain in Japan threatens to contaminate ground with radioactivity
Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:28 PM GMT on March 15, 2011 A low pressure system is located over Japan near Tokyo today, and the counterclockwise flow of air around this low is bringing easterly winds over the stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, which lies to the north-northeast of Tokyo. These easterly winds are blowing radioactivity inland over Japan. As the low tracks northeastward along the coast of Japan today, winds at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant will gradually shift to northeast and then northwest, whic...
Updated: 3:56 PM GMT on March 15, 2011 Permalink | A A A Radiation from Japan not likely to harm North America
Posted by: JeffMasters, 12:53 PM GMT on March 14, 2011 Radiation from Japan's stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant has been detected 100 miles to the northeast, over the Pacific Ocean, by the U.S. military. Westerly to southwesterly winds have predominated over Japan the past few days, carrying most of the radiation eastwards out to sea. The latest forecast for Sendai, Japan, located about 40 miles north of the Fukushima nuclear plant, calls for winds with a westerly component to dominate for the remainder of the we...
Updated: 1:00 PM GMT on March 14, 2011 Permalink | A A A
The owner of a military supply company in Maine says he's been inundated with orders from people in California buying gas masks and chemical suits.
Maine Military Supply owner Frank Spizuoco (SPIZ'-oo-koh) of Brewer says hundreds of gas masks are going out the door. He says people are also ordering related gear, including chemical suits, jackets, gloves, pants and boots.
four to five on a seven-point international scale for atomic incidents.
The crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi site is now two levels below Ukraine's 1986 Chernobyl disaster.
The head of the UN's nuclear watchdog warned in Tokyo the battle to stabilise the plant was a race against time.
The crisis was prompted by last week's huge quake and tsunami, which has left at least 16,000 people dead or missing.
VIENNA — A diplomat says Japan’s radioactive fallout has reached Southern California but first readings are “about a billion times beneath levels that would be health threatening.
At least 30 anti-government protesters have been shot dead by Yemeni forces in Sanaa, doctors say.
They said dozens were wounded when government forces opened fire on a group of protesters gathered near the university, following Friday prayers.
Japan's Prime Minister Naoto Kan says the nuclear crisis at the crippled Fukushima plant is "very grave."Kan said on Friday the police, fire department and military were "putting their lives on the line" to cool the highly radioactive fuel rods at the complex.
Officials on Friday raised the severity rating of its nuclear disaster from 4 to 5 on a 7-point international nuclear event scale.
The pledge came from the Libyan foreign minister, Moussa Koussa, even as western powers said they were readying warplanes for imminent action to enforce the Security Council resolution. It was unclear what effect a ceasefire, if honored, might have on the international mobilization.
At a news conference in Tripoli, Mr. Koussa said Libya accepted the resolution, which included a call for a ceasefire. He registered “sadness” that the resolution included such measures as the no-flight zone and “will have a general impact on the life of the Libyan people.”
Before the announcement, French and British officials said Friday that military action would start soon in an attempt to contain forces loyal to Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi as they threaten a final assault on the rebel stronghold of Benghazi.
In London, Prime Minister David Cameron told Parliament that Britain, a leading backer of the no-flight resolution, had begun the preparations to deploy Tornado and Typhoon warplanes along with aerial refueling and surveillance aircraft. He said the planes would move “in the coming hours” to bases where they could start implementing the no-flight zone.
“This is about protecting the Libyan people and saving lives,” Mr. Cameron said. “The world has watched Qaddafi brutally crushing his own people. We expect brutal attacks. Qaddafi is preparing for a violent assault on Benghazi.”
“Any decision to put the men and women of our armed forces into harm’s way should only be taken when absolutely necessary,” he said. “But I believe that we cannot stand back and let a dictator whose people have rejected him kill his people indiscriminately. To do so would send a chilling signal to others.”
“The clock is now ticking,” Mr. Cameron said. “We need a sense of urgency because we don’t want to see a bloodbath in Benghazi.” When criticized for getting British militarily involved, Mr. Cameron retorted: “To pass a resolution like this and then just stand back and hope someone in the region would enforce it is wrong," he said.
Mr. Cameron added that he would attend a meeting in Paris on Saturday with President Nicolas Sarkozy of France and Arab leaders, but his indicated that a statement would be issued before then “to tell Qaddafi what is expected” — although the Libyan leader had already signaled hostile intentions towards his adversaries in Benghazi.
“We will come house by house, room by room. It’s over. The issue has been decided,” Colonel Qaddafi said on a radio call-in show before the United Nations vote, in which he repeated an offer of amnesty to those who laid down their arms. To those who continued to resist, he vowed: “We will find you in your closets. We will have no mercy and no pity.”
In a television broadcast later, he added: “This is craziness, madness. The world is crazy and we will be crazy, too.”
Amr Moussa, the Secretary General of the Arab League, which had supported the idea of a no-flight zone, told Reuters on Friday: “‘The goal is to protect civilians first of all, and not to invade or occupy.”
Before Mr. Koussa’s announcement, forces loyal to Colonel Qaddafi unleashed a barrage of fire against the rebel-held town of Misurata in the west of the country, news reports said, while one of the colonel’s sons, Seif al-Islam, was quoted as saying government forces would encircle the rebel stronghold of Benghazi in the east. Eurocontrol, Europe’s air traffic control agency, said in Brussels on Friday that Libya had closed its airspace. It was not immediately clear whether loyalist troops had begun honoring the cease-fire.
François Baroin, a French government spokesman, had told RTL radio that airstrikes would come “rapidly,” perhaps within hours, after the United Nations resolution late Thursday authorizing “all necessary measures” to impose a no-flight zone.
But he insisted the military action “is not an occupation of Libyan territory.” Rather, it was designed to protect the Libyan people and “allow them to go all the way in their drive, which means bringing down the Qaddafi regime.”
The Security Council vote seemed to have divided Europeans, with Germany saying it would not participate while Norway was reported as saying it would. In the region, Turkey was reported to have registered opposition, but Qatar said it would support the operation. In Tripoli, government minders in Tripoli told journalists on Friday that they could not leave their hotel for their own safety, saying that in the aftermath of the United Nations vote, residents might attack or even shoot foreigners. The extent of the danger was unclear.
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David D. Kirkpatrick reported from Tripoli and Alan Cowell from Paris. Reporting was contributed by Dan Bilefsky from the United Nations; Mark Landler from Washington; Kareem Fahim from Tobruk, Libya; Steven Erlanger from Paris; Julia Werdigier from London; Helene Cooper and Elisabeth Bumiller from Washington; and Steven Lee Myers from Tunis.
