Oil May Rise as Mideast Unrest Curbs Supplies, Survey Shows - Bloomberg

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Oil prices may rise from the highest levels in 29 months next week as violent clashes in Libya and tensions in other parts of the Middle East disrupt crude shipments from the region, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

Twenty-three of 40 analysts, or 58 percent, forecast crude oil will climb through March 4. Nine respondents, or 23 percent, predicted prices will decline and eight estimated little change. Last week, 44 percent said futures would increase.

Crude in New York rose above $100 a barrel this week for the first time since October 2008 as a Barclays Capital report estimated Libya’s uprising reduced supplies from Africa’s third- biggest oil-producing country by as much 1 million barrels a day. The unrest follows the toppling of rulers by popular movements in Egypt and Tunisia.

“Oil will rise in what is the biggest threat to global oil supply since the Persian Gulf War,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in Chicago.

Countries in the Middle East and North Africa were responsible for 36 percent of global oil production and held 61 percent of proved reserves in 2009, according to BP Plc, which publishes its BP Statistical Review of World Energy each June.

The crude oil contract for April delivery rose $8.17, or 9.1 percent, to $97.88 a barrel this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices for futures closest to expiration increased 14 percent this week in New York, the biggest gain since the five days ended Feb. 27, 2009. Futures are up 25 percent from a year ago.

The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 47 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.

Bloomberg’s survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming week. The results were:  RISE      NEUTRAL    FALL 23          8        9

To contact the reporters on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net; Margot Habiby in Dallas at mhabiby@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Bill Banker at bbanker@bloomberg.net

via bloomberg.com