Storm Prediction Center Tornado Watch 91

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes Likelihood Moderate Low Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind Moderate Moderate Severe Hail 2"+ Hail Moderate Low Note:  The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended. Note: Click for Watch Status Reports. SEL1 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 91 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1055 AM UNTIL 600 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 125 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF COLUMBUS MISSISSIPPI TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 87...WW 88...WW 89...WW 90... DISCUSSION...WELL-DEVELOPED SQUALL ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A CONTINUED FEED OF 66-72 F DEWPOINTS AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE...WHILE DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/EMBEDDED BOWS AND POSSIBLY SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040. ...THOMPSON Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes Likelihood Moderate Low Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind Moderate Moderate Severe Hail 2"+ Hail Moderate Low Note:  See the experimental Public Watch (SEL) product with explicit hazard information section below. The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended. Note: Click for Watch Status Reports. SEL1 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 91 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1055 AM UNTIL 600 PM CDT. SEVERAL TORNADOES SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 125 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF COLUMBUS MISSISSIPPI TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 87...WW 88...WW 89...WW 90... DISCUSSION...WELL-DEVELOPED SQUALL ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A CONTINUED FEED OF 66-72 F DEWPOINTS AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE...WHILE DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/EMBEDDED BOWS AND POSSIBLY SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040. ...THOMPSON Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes Likelihood Moderate Low Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind Moderate Moderate Severe Hail 2"+ Hail Moderate Low SEL1 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 91 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1055 AM UNTIL 600 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 125 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF COLUMBUS MISSISSIPPI TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 87...WW 88...WW 89...WW 90... DISCUSSION...WELL-DEVELOPED SQUALL ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A CONTINUED FEED OF 66-72 F DEWPOINTS AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE...WHILE DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/EMBEDDED BOWS AND POSSIBLY SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040. ...THOMPSON Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes Likelihood Moderate Low Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind Moderate Moderate Severe Hail 2"+ Hail Moderate Low Note: Click for Watch Status Reports. WOUS64 KWNS 041550 WOU1 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 91 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011 TORNADO WATCH 91 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARC003-017-042300- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0091.110404T1555Z-110404T2300Z/ AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT LAC001-003-005-007-009-011-019-023-025-029-033-035-037-039-041- 045-047-053-055-063-065-067-077-079-083-091-097-099-101-103-105- 107-113-115-117-121-123-125-042300- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0091.110404T1555Z-110404T2300Z/ LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN ASCENSION ASSUMPTION AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST CARROLL EAST FELICIANA EVANGELINE FRANKLIN IBERIA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LIVINGSTON MADISON MOREHOUSE POINTE COUPEE RAPIDES RICHLAND ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TENSAS VERMILION VERNON WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST CARROLL WEST FELICIANA MSC001-005-007-011-015-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-043-049- 051-053-055-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-083-085-087-089- 091-097-099-101-103-105-109-113-121-123-125-127-129-133-147-149- 151-155-157-159-163-042300- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0091.110404T1555Z-110404T2300Z/ MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AMITE ATTALA BOLIVAR CARROLL CHOCTAW CLAIBORNE CLARKE CLAY COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN GRENADA HINDS HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LEFLORE LINCOLN LOWNDES MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA PEARL RIVER PIKE RANKIN SCOTT SHARKEY SIMPSON SMITH SUNFLOWER WALTHALL WARREN WASHINGTON WEBSTER WILKINSON WINSTON YAZOO TXC199-241-245-351-361-457-042300- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0091.110404T1555Z-110404T2300Z/ TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDIN JASPER JEFFERSON NEWTON ORANGE TYLER GMZ430-432-435-042300- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0091.110404T1555Z-110404T2300Z/ CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE SABINE LAKE CALCASIEU LAKE VERMILION BAY ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX... Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes Likelihood Moderate Low Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind Moderate Moderate Severe Hail 2"+ Hail Moderate Low Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas. SAW1 WW 91 TORNADO AR LA MS TX CW 041555Z - 042300Z AXIS..125 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 50WNW CBM/COLUMBUS MS/ - 35SSW LCH/LAKE CHARLES LA/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 110NM E/W /45NW IGB - 34SSW LCH/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040. LAT...LON 33888708 29649136 29649551 33889143 THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU1. Watch 91 Status Report Message has not been issued yet. Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes Likelihood Moderate Low Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind Moderate Moderate Severe Hail 2"+ Hail Moderate Low Please visit the National Weather Service Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN) for more information on the warnings. Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes Likelihood Moderate Low Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind Moderate Moderate Severe Hail 2"+ Hail Moderate Low Note:  Click for Complete Product Text. Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Mod (40%) Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Low (20%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events Mod (60%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Mod (30%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events Mod (30%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Low (10%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (90%) For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event. 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